LEER EN ESPAÑOL
Russia’s relations with the European Union are once again in turmoil. But as has happened at least since the end of the Cold War, the regional bloc and the power that has one foot in Europe and the other in Asia are in many aspects a conglomerate of common geopolitical needs that cannot yet be eliminated in the framework of a conflict.
The latest disagreement between Brussels and the Kremlin involves NATO, the military alliance between the United States and its European partners.
On 6 October, the Atlantic organization announced the expulsion of 8 diplomats from the Russian mission in Brussels, accused of being “undeclared Russian intelligence officials.”
Moscow’s response was forceful: it declared the closure of the NATO military mission in Moscow on November 1.
Russia and NATO had for years maintained respective military representations, as a way of maintaining channels of direct dialogue in the face of any critical situation that might arise.
From now on, the only channel for military matters between Europe and Russia will be the Moscow embassy in Brussels.
Behind this new degree of deterioration in relations between Russia and the West are cross-accusations of espionage, Cyberattacks and interference increased since Moscow announced in 2014 that Crimea had decided in a plebiscite to become part of the Russian Federation. To this must be added the conflict in eastern Ukraine, where the Kremlin supports separatist groups seeking independence from Kiev. That is why it is no coincidence that the recent tour of US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had a chapter in Ukraine.
On the other hand, there is a new link between Russia and Europe: the Nord Stream gas pipeline, which the United States has tried unsuccessfully to stop since its inception in 2011.
It is more than 1,200 kilometres long, stretching from the city of Vyborg in the Russian province of Leningrad, passing under the Baltic Sea to the locality of Lubmin in Germany. It has the capacity to pump more than 55 billion cubic meters of gas annually, and will fuel growing German energy demand, as well as that of the rest of Europe.
The full availability of these resources comes at a time when the continent is facing rising energy prices that alarm European leaders. Indeed, natural gas prices rose by 600 percent this year, raising fears that supply cuts will be recorded when the peak of winter consumption in the northern hemisphere begins in three months.
In this context of extreme need, the Nord Stream gas pipeline becomes, according to critics of the Kremlin, a geostrategic weapon, as in case of conflict it could leave Europe without gas, causing a civil and industrial collapse.
That possibility had already been discussed with the gas pipeline passing through Ukraine, and that is why this country is so important in the ongoing dispute.
Russia would thus now have one more tool with which to destabilize the European economy, and to press for one of its never-stated and seemingly impossible objectives: to fracture the Atlantic alliance, isolating the United States from Europe.
And at the same time, accuses Washington, with some reason, of trying to interfere in its relations with the European Union.
For now, all players move their pieces cautiously.
Germany, where Nord Stream’s energy dependence was a central theme of the recent election campaign, cannot do without Russian gas to sustain its growth, which is in turn Europe’s main economic engine.
And along with France, he hopes that Biden will bring predictability to international relations without intensify conflicts with Russia, to overcome the challenges of the post-pandemic.